Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Early Voting Update--data through Oct. 19th

I've updated the WNC early voting data through Oct. 19th.  As Led Zeppelin once said--"the song remains the same."  Republicans are doing slightly better than might be expected based on their share of registered voters, but the Democrats have slightly more votes in all. Check out this link for the full report (including county-level data) or read below for the highlights.

See below for the graph for the 11th Congessional District updated with the new votes

I also created a graph to simulate the one from a few days ago--so you can compare the % of early voters who are Republicans to the % of registered voters who are Republicans by County. Once again, in general, counties with more registered Republicans in the county are seeing higher turnout among Republicans thus far, but there are a few interesting deviations. Republican turnout is Henderson County continues to be better than we might have expected. The story isn't all good for Republicans, however, as they are not doing as well in Madison, Jackson, and Haywood Counties--and particularly in Graham. Those who are more statistically inclined may be interested to know that the R-squared in the graph below is .82—slightly lower than the .88 reported just a few days before.

Next I wanted to begin to graph turnout by day to see which days are the biggest days and if some days look better for one party than others. The graph below tracks the cumulative vote totals for each party by day for the entire 11th Congressional District. Clearly this week has seen a bit pick-up in early voting.

Please continue to check back as the turnout game gets more interesting over the next few weeks. I'm particularly interested to see if Clinton's appearance in Asheville gives the Democrats a temporary boost in Buncombe County on Friday and Saturday.

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